Steam is on track to surpass $20 billion in revenue in 2026, according to a forecast by Alinea Analytics analyst Rhys Elliott—not a figure disclosed by Valve. Alinea estimates the platform generated $16.5 billion through September, including a record September, but its figures are estimates rather than audited results.
What Alinea’s forecast says
In a post published October 1, 2026, Elliott estimated Steam revenue at $16.5 billion for the first nine months of 2026, compared with $14.5 billion for the same period in 2025. That represents a 13% increase year over year, based on Alinea’s estimates. Alinea put third-quarter revenue at $5.5 billion, up 12% from a year earlier.
On that basis, Elliott forecast that Steam would “blow past $20B” for the first time in 2026, citing the expected release slate for the rest of the year. This is a prediction, not a confirmed annual total or a guarantee. Valve has not published the revenue figures in these reports. Read Alinea’s October 1 estimate and game breakdown.
Why reports give two September revenue figures
Alinea’s original post estimates Steam’s September 2026 revenue at $1.7 billion, its best September to date and 13% above the previous September record. GamesRadar’s October 2 article instead gives $1.6 billion for the month, while also reporting Alinea’s $5.5 billion third-quarter and $16.5 billion year-to-date estimates.
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The reports do not explain the difference. The figures should not be averaged or presented as confirmed Valve revenue. For attribution, Alinea’s own post is the primary source and gives the $1.7 billion estimate. GamesRadar’s October 2 report is the source of the conflicting $1.6 billion figure.
How Wardogs and The Witcher 3 fit the story
Wardogs’ September estimate
Alinea estimated that Wardogs generated $86.9 million on Steam in September 2026, following its early-access launch on September 10. The firm also said the game had passed $100 million in Steam revenue overall by the time of its post. That total includes revenue from before September; it is not an additional September figure.
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The Witcher 3 Remastered sales estimate
Alinea described The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Remastered as a free upgrade for existing owners. It estimated that the game sold 130,000 copies across Steam, PlayStation and Xbox on the day of the remaster’s launch. That is a combined, cross-platform estimate—not 130,000 Steam copies—and it does not establish how much revenue the remaster generated on Steam.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the figures do—and do not—show
The $20 billion claim concerns estimated Steam revenue across the platform; the Wardogs figure is an estimated Steam game revenue figure; and the 130,000 Witcher figure counts estimated copies sold across three platforms. Those measures are not interchangeable. None of the current Steam totals cited here is an official Valve disclosure.
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The Witcher franchise’s older sales milestone offers context, but not a way to verify Alinea’s 2026 estimates. In its Q1 2025 earnings transcript, CD Projekt said The Witcher 3 had sold more than 60 million copies globally and generated PLN 2.4 billion in revenue over its first decade. Those are company-reported historical figures as of May 2025, not current 2026 totals. CD Projekt’s Q1 2025 earnings transcript.
Quick Recap
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- Valve is entering the gaming console marketplace with the new Steam Deck, a console geared towards PC gamers. The Steam Deck can be docked to a monitor, and used as a PC, or docked to a TV.
- Players can play a huge variety of games at any time with the comfort of a console and the freedom of a PC. Not anti-glare screen.
- Like the name suggests, the Steam Deck will include upgraded 1TB storage, and will include a carrying case. A micro SD slot will also enable expanded storage.
- Valve partnered with AMD to create a specialized APU optimized for handheld gaming, and Valve says the chip will deliver performance to run AAA gaming titles.
- The Steam Deck is outfitted with a 7-inch touchscreen, and two trackpads under the control sticks that allow gamers to operate games never designed outside of mouse and keyboard capabilities.
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