If you mean the Mega Charizard X ex Special Illustration Rare (SIR) from Mega Evolution—Phantasmal Flames, the reported chance is about 1 in 400 packs (0.25%). That is an estimate from observed openings, not an official Pokémon guarantee. The name can also refer to older Mega Charizard-EX cards, whose odds are not established by this estimate.
What does the 1-in-400 estimate mean?
In a November 18, 2025 report, PokéBeach attributed Phantasmal Flames pull-rate estimates to TCGplayer openings of more than 5,000 booster packs. The report puts the Mega Charizard X ex SIR at 1 in 400 packs. It is a sample-based average, not a promise that one card will appear in every 400 packs, nor an official rate published by The Pokémon Company. The report also does not establish that the estimate applies identically to every product format, region, batch, or later print run. Read the reported pull-rate estimates.
For scale, if every pack were an independent trial with a 1-in-400 chance, the mathematical probability of at least one SIR would be about 2.5% after 10 packs and 8.6% after 36. These are calculations using the reported estimate, not separately measured results; actual packs may not behave as perfectly independent trials.
Which Mega Charizard card does that rate cover?
The estimate is for the Mega Charizard X ex SIR in Mega Evolution—Phantasmal Flames, not every card with a similar name. The official card list identifies Mega Charizard X ex and its SIR treatment. View the official Phantasmal Flames card list.
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- Single Pokemon Card
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- Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094 - ME02: Phantasmal Flames (PFL)
- Double Rare - Holographic - Foil
Pokémon also has older Mega Charizard-EX cards, including cards in XY—Flashfire. The modern Phantasmal Flames estimate does not apply to those older cards, and no reliable pull-rate estimate for them is established here. See Pokémon’s XY—Flashfire page.
How does the SIR compare with other Phantasmal Flames rarities?
The same observed-opening report gives these rates. The Mega Hyper Rare is a separate card treatment, not another name for the SIR.
Rank #2
- Random Assortment of 6 Jumbo Pokemon Cards
- Size 5x7
| Card rarity or treatment | Reported frequency |
|---|---|
| Mega Charizard X ex SIR | 1 in 400 packs (0.25%) |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 in 1,260 packs (about 0.079%) |
| Any Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 80 packs |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 9 packs |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 12 packs |
| Double Rare | 1 in 5 packs |
These are estimates reported from the sample, not guarantees for an individual pack. The report’s full set of estimates.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Should you open packs or buy the exact card?
Opening packs makes sense if you want the randomized experience and are happy with other cards from the set. It is a highly uncertain way to get one specific chase card at a reported rate of 1 in 400 packs. Buying the exact single avoids that randomness, but whether it costs less depends on current local prices for packs and the card; no current price comparison is established here.
Rank #3
- 2 card lot
- in near mint condition
Phantasmal Flames products are intended for opening: for example, Pokémon’s official Elite Trainer Box listing specifies nine booster packs. That gives you nine chances at set cards, not an assurance of the Mega Charizard X ex SIR. The set became available beginning November 14, 2025. See the official set and product information.
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- Single Pokemon Card
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- Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094 - ME02: Phantasmal Flames (PFL)
- Ultra Rare - Full Art - Textured Foil
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