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A September 2026 poll reported that 49% supported the UK rejoining the European Union, compared with 28.5% opposed. That is almost half, not a majority. The Messina Group survey covered 11,461 people between 12 and 24 September, according to The Independent, which attributed the figures to The Guardian’s reporting.
What the September poll found
The reported headline result was 49% in favour of rejoining the EU and 28.5% against. The remaining respondents were not accounted for in the Independent’s summary of that question, so the support and opposition figures should not be treated as a complete breakdown.
The poll was conducted by the Messina Group from 12–24 September 2026 among 11,461 people. The Guardian report republished by AOL says the survey was weighted by the result of the 2016 referendum and examined seven possible UK-EU relationship options. The original questionnaire, full tables and complete technical documentation are not available in the cited coverage, so the precise question wording, recruitment method and other weighting details cannot be independently confirmed. AOL’s republication of The Guardian report provides additional reported findings.
Rejoining is one of several relationship options
Coverage of the Messina Group survey also reported responses to other possible arrangements. These are separate measures, and the available reporting does not establish that respondents had to choose only one option or that every option was presented with identical detailed terms.
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| Reported option or view | Support | Opposition |
|---|---|---|
| Rejoin the EU | 49% (Messina Group, September 2026, as reported by The Independent) | 28.5% (same report) |
| Keep the existing relationship while cutting as many trade barriers as possible | 48.2% (Messina Group, September 2026, as reported by The Independent) | 20.9% (same report) |
| Join a customs union | 47.1% (Messina Group, September 2026, as reported by The Independent) | 20.7% (same report) |
| Join the single market | 45.1% (Messina Group, September 2026, as reported by The Guardian report republished by AOL) | Not stated in the cited report |
| Associate membership | 45.5% (Messina Group, September 2026, as reported by The Guardian report republished by AOL) | Not stated in the cited report |
The range of reported responses points to interest in different degrees of closer EU ties, not just a binary choice between full membership and the current arrangement. The figures do not, by themselves, establish which policy package respondents would prefer after considering its specific conditions.
A separate Ipsos survey asked different questions
Ipsos published a separate poll on 8 June 2026. Its representative probability sample consisted of 1,137 British adults aged 18 and over, interviewed through the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel from 14–20 May and weighted to match the population profile. Ipsos conducted the work with King’s College London and UK in a Changing Europe and notes that polls can have sources of error. Its findings are not a repeat measurement of the Messina Group’s September result.
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- 52% said the UK should apply to rejoin the EU, while 33% said it should stay out.
- In a hypothetical referendum, 58% of likely voters said they would vote to rejoin and 37% to stay out. Excluding “don’t knows,” Ipsos reported the split as 61% to 39%.
The first result measures views on applying to rejoin; the second asks how likely voters say they would vote in a hypothetical referendum. Neither should be substituted for the Messina Group’s reported 49% support figure. Ipsos’s results and methodology are available in its June 2026 publication.
Views differ by age and party in Ipsos’s poll
In the same Ipsos survey, stated referendum choices varied across age groups and recalled party-voter groups:
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- 68% of 18–34-year-olds and 58% of 35–54-year-olds backed rejoining; 50% of respondents aged 55 and over wanted to stay out.
- Among party voters, 84% of Labour, 80% of Liberal Democrat and 86% of Green voters said they would vote to rejoin.
- Among Conservative voters, 56% said they would vote to stay out; the same was true of 71% of Reform voters.
These are Ipsos subgroup findings, not breakdowns of the Messina Group poll. Ipsos also found support for holding a referendum: 48% supported one before the next general election, against 29% opposed; 49% supported one after the next election, against 26% opposed.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Public views on Brexit do not settle the terms or process
Other figures attributed to the Messina Group by The Guardian’s report give context to the range of views, but do not show that respondents were told these would be conditions of re-entry. More than two-thirds reportedly considered EU trade more important than trade with the United States or China if the UK had to choose; four in five wanted to keep the pound. On the European Convention on Human Rights, 53.4% were reported in favour of staying and 24.2% against.
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The same report said 29.7% thought leaving the EU had been right, 52.4% wrong and 17.9% did not know. Asked whether Brexit had been a success, 12.2% said it had, 54.9% called it a failure, 23.2% said neither and 9.7% did not know. These, too, are news-reported Messina Group results rather than figures independently verifiable against a published original questionnaire.
On timing, 25.9% reportedly preferred rejoining immediately, 22.9% within three years and 8.4% over the next decade. Timing preferences are distinct from support for membership itself, and the reported figures do not specify how all respondents viewed other possible timelines or decision routes.
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What the 49% figure can—and cannot—tell you
The September finding is evidence that support for rejoining was substantial in that survey, but it is not proof that a majority of British voters back membership. The Independent describes the participants as UK adults; its account does not establish a voter-only denominator. The reported 49% is one percentage point below half, and the published coverage does not provide enough original technical detail to assess the precise wording or all aspects of representativeness.
Nor does stated support automatically predict a referendum result. Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley cautioned: “We should be aware that a future referendum might play out differently in practice.” Ipsos also notes that immigration remains a likely campaign issue and that views become more complex when people weigh trade-offs in the UK-EU relationship. Ipsos’s account reports those comments.
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