A red Covert skin has a commonly reported chance of 0.64% per standard weapon-case opening—about 1 in 156. That is the chance of getting any Covert item, not a guarantee after 156 cases; a particular skin’s odds depend on how many Covert skins are in that case.
What does “red” mean in CS:GO?
“Red” refers to the Covert rarity tier for weapon skins. It is separate from the gold rare-special tier used for knives and gloves, so the Covert odds do not describe those items.
What are the odds of getting a red skin?
A September 30, 2026 guide from CSDROP Wiki reports a 0.64% chance per opening for a Covert from a standard weapon case, or roughly 1 in 156. Treat this as the commonly reported rate, not a freshly audited Valve figure: the guide traces the underlying rates to figures published in 2017 by Valve’s Chinese publishing partner, Perfect World, and says continuity from CS:GO to CS2 is community-reported. It also notes that Valve has not announced a change but has not published an audit.
Does 1 in 156 mean I will get one by opening 156 cases?
No. “About 1 in 156” is a reciprocal shorthand for the chance on one opening, not a threshold or guarantee. Each opening is an independent roll, so missing several times does not raise the chance on the next opening.
#1 Best Overall
- The Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Destined Rivals Elite Trainer Box includes 9 Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Destined Rivals booster packs, 1 full-art foil promo card featuring Team Rocket’s Wobbuffet, and 45 Pokémon TCG Energy cards.
- This also comes with 65 card sleeves, A player’s guide to the Scarlet & Violet—Destined Rivals expansion, and a collector’s box to hold everything, with 4 dividers to keep it organized
- You will also get 6 damage-counter dice, 1 competition-legal coin-flip die, and 2 plastic condition markers.
- You will also find a code card for Pokémon Trading Card Game Live.
Are the odds the same for every red skin?
No. The 0.64% figure is for any Covert in a standard weapon case. A specific skin’s chance depends on the case’s Covert item pool: if a case contains two Covert skins, the tier probability is divided between those outcomes, according to the CSDROP guide. Check the contents of the particular case before estimating the chance of one named skin.
For example, the original CS:GO Weapon Case contains one Covert, AWP | Lightning Strike. A case database lists its chance in that case as 0.640%; this is a case-specific database figure, not an official Valve publication: CSGO Stash’s CS:GO Weapon Case listing.
Rank #2
- ASSEMBLE EARTH’S MIGHTIEST HEROES—The Marvel Universe has arrived in full force! Build your dream super team of Heroes and Villains, then suit them up with iconic gear and unleash their earthshaking abilities.
- EARTH’S MIGHTIEST BOOSTER PACKS—Collector Boosters are the ultimate way to add unique and exclusive cards to your collection; tons of foils, special card treatments, Rares and/or Mythics, and more await you inside every pack
- COLLECTOR BOOSTER-EXCLUSIVES—Each pack may contain Collector Booster-exclusive card treatments, like Extended-Art cards or even an ultra-rare headliner card featuring a special foil treatment
- WELCOME TO THE GATHERING—Magic: The Gathering is a collectible card game that weaves deep strategy, gorgeous art, fantastical stories, and a thriving fan community all together into a card game experience like no other
- COLLECTOR BOOSTER BOX CONTENTS—12 Magic: The Gathering | Marvel Super Heroes Collector Boosters, with 15 MTG cards and 1 Art Card or Traditional Foil double-sided token
Does the 0.64% rate apply to capsules or souvenir packages?
Not necessarily. The reported figure is for standard weapon cases, and the available sources do not establish the odds for every current container type. Do not apply it automatically to souvenir packages, capsules, or other item systems.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How does a case opening work?
A Quebec court filing describes the mechanic as randomly selecting an item from possible virtual items and says a case displays possible items and rarity groupings. The filing contains legal allegations; it should not be read as a court’s final factual findings: Quebec court filing.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsQuick Recap
Best Value
- 9 Packs per Box, 5 Cards Per Pack
- Collect a 180-Card Base Set! Look for Ultra-rare Purple Rainbow Reality #'d 1 of 1!
- Search for First Appearance Variants Cards- Rare, Super-Rare, Hyper-Rare!
- Look For Rare Character Autographs from Legendary Comic Creators!
- Collect Legendary Signature Comic Clippings Booklet Cards!
Rank #4
- Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Destined Rivals Booster Display Box contains 36 Booster Packs from the Scarlet & Violry --Destined Rivals Expansion.
- The Scarlet & Violet --Destined Rivals expansion contains over 240 cards for you to try and collect. Try an find the over 85 Trainer's Pokémon, including over 45 Team Rocket's Pokémon.
- The expansion contains more than 15 Pokémon ex, more than 20 Trainer cards, and more than 45 Pokémon and Trainer cards with special illustrations.
Rank #3
- ASSEMBLE EARTH’S MIGHTIEST HEROES—The Marvel Universe has arrived in full force! Build your dream super team of Heroes and Villains, then suit them up with iconic gear and unleash their earthshaking abilities
- FOIL & RARE IN EVERY PACK—Each Play Booster contains at least 1 shiny Traditional Foil card and 1–4 cards of rarity Rare or higher, including the possibility of special cards featuring beautiful borderless alternate art
- BEST BOOSTERS FOR PLAYING WITH FRIENDS—Play Boosters are the best way to discover what Magic has to offer; they're perfect for building decks, playing Limited games with friends, and are tons of fun to open
- WELCOME TO THE GATHERING—Magic: The Gathering is a collectible card game that weaves deep strategy, gorgeous art, fantastical stories, and a thriving fan community all together into a card game experience like no other
- PLAY BOOSTER BOX CONTENTS—30 Magic: The Gathering | Marvel Super Heroes Play Boosters, each containing 14 cards
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
