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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Nintendo originally forecast 15 million Switch 2 hardware sales for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026—not for the console’s first 12 months on sale. It later raised that forecast to 19 million, then reported 19.86 million hardware units for FY26.
What Nintendo’s 15 million forecast covered
On May 8, 2025, Nintendo forecast 15.00 million Switch 2 hardware units for its fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, so the forecast covered the remainder of that fiscal year after launch, not a rolling 12-month period. Nintendo’s May 2025 financial-results materials also forecast 45.00 million Switch 2 software units.
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The software figure needs a bundle caveat: Nintendo’s original forecast excluded software units bundled with hardware or other products, including Mario Kart World when included in a console bundle. It should not be compared with software totals that count bundled copies as though they were measured on the same basis.
How the forecast changed—and what Nintendo reported
| Announcement or cutoff | Fiscal period or scope | Switch 2 hardware | Switch 2 software |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2025: original forecast | FY26, year ended March 31, 2026 | 15.00 million forecast | 45.00 million forecast; excluded bundled units |
| February 3, 2026: revised forecast | FY26 | 19.00 million forecast | 48.00 million forecast; included some bundled units through December 31, 2025, but excluded bundles from January 1 onward |
| May 8, 2026: reported result | FY26 | 19.86 million actual | 48.71 million actual, including approximately 12.60 million software units bundled with other products |
| May 8, 2026: next-year outlook | FY27, year ending March 31, 2027 | 16.50 million forecast | 60.00 million forecast; excluded future bundles |
| June 30, 2026: cumulative sales data | Cumulative total through that date | 23.68 million | 58.17 million |
The February revision and FY26 results are in Nintendo’s February 2026 forecast revision and May 2026 results and outlook. The cumulative totals come from Nintendo’s sales-data page. The June cumulative total has a later cutoff and broader time scope than the FY26 annual result; it is not another FY26 figure.
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- The next evolution of Nintendo Switch
- One system, three play modes: TV, Tabletop, and Handheld
- Larger, vivid, 7.9” LCD touch screen with support for HDR and up to 120 fps
- Dock that supports 4K when connected to a compatible TV*
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Was the 15 million forecast accurate?
It was lower than the eventual FY26 result. Nintendo first raised the FY26 hardware forecast from 15 million to 19 million in February 2026, then reported 19.86 million units for the year. The actual was 4.86 million above the original forecast, or about 32% higher. That comparison is between Nintendo’s original annual forecast and its subsequently reported FY26 annual result—not the first-year total measured from the June launch date.
Nintendo distinguishes sell-in—unit sales by the Nintendo group to business partners—from sell-through, which its FY26 materials describe as an internal estimate of sales to individual consumers. Those measures should not be treated as interchangeable. The 19.86 million annual figure and the 23.68 million cumulative figure also answer different questions.
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- The next evolution of the Nintendo Switch system
- One system, three play modes: TV, Tabletop, and Handheld
- Larger, vivid, 7.9” LCD touch screen with support for HDR and up to 120 fps
- Supports up to 4K resolution** when using a compatible game and TV connected via the included Nintendo Switch 2 dock
- Nintendo Switch 2 plays compatible physical and digital Nintendo Switch games.***
Why Nintendo began with a 15 million target
In Nintendo’s May 2025 investor Q&A, president Shuntaro Furukawa said the forecast was not set by a production-capacity limit. Nintendo was concerned with sustaining demand beyond the launch period: Furukawa said the Switch 2’s price was relatively high compared with the original Switch and that maintaining momentum through the holiday season and afterward would be difficult.
“Our sales volume forecast was not determined based on any limit to production capacity.”
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He explained that Nintendo wanted momentum throughout the year, rather than only at launch, and therefore treated 15 million as its initial plan. The company’s original FY26 forecast also projected net sales of 1,900.0 billion yen and operating profit of 320.0 billion yen; those were forecasts, not actual results.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why Nintendo’s FY27 forecast is lower
Nintendo forecast 16.50 million Switch 2 hardware units for FY27, below the 19.86 million reported for FY26. In its May 2026 outlook, the company attributed the expected year-on-year decline to unusually strong launch-year sales and price revisions, while describing 16.50 million as a solid level for the console’s second year. It is a new annual forecast, not a revision of FY26’s reported result.
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