The commonly reported baseline for a shiny-eligible Legendary raid encounter is about 1 in 20, but that is not an official Niantic rate or a confirmed Rayquaza-specific probability. Niantic confirms Shiny Rayquaza can appear when it is available and has announced event-specific increased chances, but its cited announcements do not disclose exact odds.
What are the chances of getting a Shiny Rayquaza?
Niantic does not publish a numeric Shiny Rayquaza rate in the cited official announcements. Pokémon Database reports a general estimate of about 1 in 20 for shiny-eligible Legendary Pokémon encountered in raids. Treat that as a commonly reported baseline—not a guarantee, an official Niantic figure, or a verified Rayquaza-specific rate.
Niantic’s Shiny Pokémon help page lists Raid Boss encounters as one way to find a shiny and points players to event announcements for availability, but gives no probability. The Pokémon Database estimate is third-party information, not a rate confirmed by the game’s publisher.
How many Rayquaza raids does it usually take to get a shiny?
There is no number of raids after which a shiny is due. Each eligible encounter is another chance, and a string of non-shiny results does not make the next encounter more likely. If you assume a 1-in-20 chance on every encounter and treat attempts as independent, the chance of seeing at least one shiny across multiple encounters is calculated as 1 − (19/20)n.
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- This palm-sized plush is a fun, charming way to show off a favorite Dragon- and Flying-type Legendary Pokémon originally discovered in Hoenn!
- Part of the Sitting Cuties collection—known as Pokémon fit in Japan
- Care Instructions: Surface wash only.
- Item Dimensions: 5.9 x 5.3 x 5.9 inches (14.9 x 13.4 x 14.9 cm)
- Pokémon Center Original
| Eligible encounters | Chance of at least one shiny under the 1-in-20 assumption |
|---|---|
| 1 | 5.0% |
| 10 | 40.1% |
| 20 | 64.2% |
| 50 | 92.3% |
| 100 | 99.4% |
These percentages are arithmetic based on the stated assumption, not separately published Pokémon GO statistics. Even 20 encounters would mean about a 64.2% chance of at least one shiny under that model—not a promise of one shiny per 20 raids. The baseline estimate is general to eligible Legendary raids, so actual Rayquaza odds may differ.
Can an event change Shiny Rayquaza odds?
Yes. Niantic’s October 18, 2025 announcement for Mega Rayquaza Raid Day said there would be an “Increased chance of encountering Shiny Rayquaza from Mega Raids.” It did not state a percentage or multiplier, and that dated event announcement does not establish a bonus outside that event.
For historical context, Niantic’s July 29, 2019 announcement said Rayquaza would appear in five-star raids from July 31 through September 2, 2019, and that players might encounter its shiny form: “If your luck soars sky-high, you may encounter a Shiny Rayquaza!” That confirms possible availability during that specific window, not current availability or a numeric rate.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to check whether Rayquaza is available now
Availability and bonuses depend on the current raid rotation and event. Check the latest official Pokémon GO event announcement before planning raids; older announcements confirm only the dates and conditions they describe. The official sources cited here do not disclose either an exact current Shiny Rayquaza rate or the size of event-specific boosts.
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Best Value
- The Rayquaza Sitting Cuties Plush is weighted with microbeads, so it sits up when you put it on a flat surface. This palm-sized plush is a fun, charming way to show off a favorite Dragon- and Flying-type Legendary Pokémon originally discovered in Hoenn!Measures about 6 inches tall and 6 inches long
- Includes Rayquaza Sitting Cuties Plush
- Care Instructions: Surface wash only.
- Item Dimensions: 5.9 x 5.3 x 5.9 inches (14.9 x 13.4 x 14.9 cm)
- Pokémon Center Original
Rank #3
- Impressive Size: Measures about 45 inches long from head to tail
- Posable Design: Bendable body lets you create custom poses to bring the action to life
- Authentic Details: Complete with impressive whiskers and tendrils that help guide this Mega-Evolved Legendary Pokemon through the sky
- Legendary Pokemon: A Dragon- and Flying-type Legendary Pokemon from the Hoenn region
- Official Merchandise: Pokemon Center Original featuring Shiny Mega Rayquaza as a supercharged Poke Plush
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