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A 2026 study estimates that roughly 180,000 Aldabra giant tortoises (Aldabrachelys gigantea) live on Aldabra Atoll in the Seychelles. The figure is a statistical estimate rather than a count of individual animals, and the best estimate reported by the University of Exeter is almost 183,000 adult and sub-adult tortoises.
What the study estimated
The paper, “Inferring the Abundance of an Island Megaherbivore From Semi-Structured Distance Sampling,” was published in Ecology and Evolution in 2026, with Hillyard and colleagues as authors. Its estimate sits alongside an older figure from the late 1990s, and the two numbers are produced by different methods, so they are not a like-for-like pair.
| Estimate | Population figure | Period it represents | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Widely cited late-1990s estimate | About 100,000 tortoises | Late 1990s | Older survey approach that did not correct for animals present but not seen (per the University of Exeter, 2026) |
| Ecology and Evolution study (2026) | Approximately 180,000 individuals | Described by the authors as relatively stable between 2018 and 2021 | Bayesian hierarchical distance-sampling model that estimates detectability by habitat |
| University of Exeter best estimate (2026) | Almost 183,000 adult and sub-adult tortoises | Modelled from monitoring counts collected 2018 to 2022 | Same modelling approach, reported as the study’s best estimate |
The university’s announcement, dated October 7, 2026, gives the 2018 to 2022 window as the span of counts collected by Seychelles Islands Foundation research staff. The paper itself describes the population as roughly 180,000 between 2018 and 2021. Keep those two periods separate: one describes when the field data were gathered, the other describes the period the estimate covers.
How the tortoises were counted
Aldabra’s tortoises live in scrub, mangrove, shade and open ground, and a surveyor walking a line will miss animals hidden under vegetation. That makes a simple tally of animals seen an unreliable measure of how many are actually there.
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Monitoring transects
The field data come from transects across the atoll’s habitats. Staff recorded tortoises they could see along those lines, together with how far each animal was from the observer. Distance matters because animals farther away are harder to spot, so the pattern of sightings across distances carries information about how many were missed.
What the model does
The study uses a Bayesian hierarchical distance-sampling model. In plain terms, it combines the sightings from many transects and treats two things as unknown at the same time: how many tortoises are in an area, and how likely a tortoise in that habitat is to be detected. Because detection differs between dense vegetation and open ground, the model adjusts the count for the animals that were present but not seen.
The output is an estimate with uncertainty attached. It is not a headcount, and its precision depends on how much sampling was done and how visible animals were in each habitat.
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Why the numbers do not show a doubling
It is tempting to set the late-1990s figure of about 100,000 beside the new figure of about 180,000 and conclude that the population nearly doubled. The studies do not support that reading. Earlier surveys did not account for tortoises that were present but hidden or missed. The newer model does, so the gap between the two numbers reflects, at least in part, a difference in method.
If you compare the two estimates, check three things:
- Whether each figure is a raw or older survey estimate, or a detection-corrected model output.
- The period each estimate represents, which differs between the late 1990s and the 2018 to 2021 window.
- The uncertainty from sampling effort and from visibility that varies by habitat.
The authors describe the new estimate as a better baseline for future monitoring. That is the more defensible use of the number.
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Where Aldabra is and why it matters
Aldabra Atoll lies in the Seychelles’ Outer Islands in the western Indian Ocean. It is a raised coral atoll made up of four main islands: Picard, Grande Terre, Malabar and Polymnie. Together they cover 155.5 square kilometres. The study’s transects were spread across the islands where tortoises live; none were present on Polymnie during the analysis period.
The study describes Aldabra’s giant tortoises as ecosystem engineers and keystone megaherbivores. Their grazing and movement help shape vegetation and other ecological processes across the atoll.
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Aldabra has a long conservation history. It became a strict nature reserve in 1981 and a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1982. The study credits that long-running protection, together with the eradication of invasive species, for supporting a high and stable tortoise population. Aldabra is sometimes compared with the Galápagos, but the university announcement says the Galápagos has a much smaller wild giant-tortoise population, so the two sites should not be treated as equivalent.
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Pressures on the population
The study and the university announcement identify several concerns. These are pressures the authors describe, not a forecast of decline.
- Drought: Longer or more frequent dry spells can reduce shade, water and forage.
- Sea-level rise: It threatens low-lying parts of the atoll.
- Feral cats and black rats: Both remain on the atoll and prey on tortoise eggs and hatchlings.
- Feral goats: These damaged vegetation and were eradicated in 2012, which removes one pressure rather than adding one.
The researchers say that eliminating the remaining invasive mammals could remove a barrier to further population growth and resilience.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Are Aldabra giant tortoises endangered?
The study does not establish a current formal conservation-status category for the species, so this article does not state one. To check the current listing, consult the IUCN Red List directly, since its status can change after a new assessment.
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What the researchers said
The following statements come from the University of Exeter’s October 7, 2026 announcement.
“More than 180,000 giant tortoises roaming freely on our atoll is proof of what long-term commitment to conservation can achieve. This is wonderful news for Seychelles, for the world, and for everyone who has worked to protect Aldabra.”
— Dr Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, CEO of the Seychelles Islands Foundation
“Aldabra’s giant tortoise monitoring programme is one of the longest running in the region, but the atoll’s dense vegetation makes counting tortoises genuinely difficult in places.”
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“But it’s important to remember that the numbers provide a baseline – not an endpoint.”
— Dr Dave Hudson, University of Exeter postdoctoral research associate
Quick Recap
Sources
- University of Exeter, “New study reports largest-ever population estimate for Seychelles’ giant tortoises,” October 7, 2026.
- Hillyard et al., “Inferring the Abundance of an Island Megaherbivore From Semi-Structured Distance Sampling,” Ecology and Evolution, 2026.
- PubMed bibliographic record for the same article, National Library of Medicine, 2026.
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