The chance of a shiny Mewtwo in Pokémon FireRed is 1 in 8,192 for each eligible encounter—about 0.0122%. That is a per-attempt probability, not a promise that the Pokémon will appear within 8,192 resets.
How shiny are the odds for Mewtwo?
FireRed uses a shiny threshold of 8 out of 65,536 possible values, which works out to 1 in 8,192. The game’s source code establishes the threshold, while mechanics references identify stationary Pokémon such as Mewtwo as eligible for that chance. The Pokémon FireRed decompilation and Serebii’s shiny mechanics reference support these details.
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Mewtwo is a stationary encounter in Cerulean Cave. It can be shiny; its fixed location does not make it exempt from the ordinary odds.
What are the cumulative odds after repeated attempts?
Assuming each attempt is an independent roll, the chance of seeing at least one shiny after n attempts is 1 − (8191/8192)n. The results below are calculated from the per-encounter odds, not guarantees or published player-survey statistics.
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- After about 5,678 attempts, the cumulative chance is roughly 50%.
- After 8,192 attempts, it is about 63.2%—not 100%.
Each unsuccessful attempt leaves the next attempt at 1 in 8,192. There is no pity counter established by the cited mechanics, so a long run without a shiny does not improve the next roll.
Where to find Mewtwo and how to reset for another attempt
Mewtwo is encountered in Cerulean Cave, a post-game location with progression prerequisites. Bulbapedia’s Cerulean Cave entry describes the location and its access context.
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- Bring the Pokemon you capture in Fire Red to the worlds of Leaf Green, Pokemon Ruby and Sapphire, or Pokemon Colosseum for more challenge
- Reach Cerulean Cave after meeting the game’s post-game access requirements.
- Save before engaging Mewtwo.
- Check whether the encounter is shiny. If it is not, reset and generate another eligible encounter.
Saving before the encounter and resetting after a non-shiny result is a common way to repeat the hunt. The odds remain 1 in 8,192 for each eligible attempt; the cited mechanics do not establish an in-game item or method that boosts this Mewtwo roll. Emulator save-state timing is not addressed here, so no particular emulator procedure should be treated as increasing the odds.
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