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What Niko Partners forecast in 2021
In an announcement dated May 27, 2021, Niko Partners said its paired mobile- and PC-market reports projected that China’s video games market would reach $55 billion and 781 million gamers by 2025. It described the figures as a proprietary five-year forecast. The announcement said its analysis drew on online gamer surveys, trend analysis, publisher interviews, regulation and policy review, and examination of distribution, hardware, payments, and internet cafés. Niko Partners’ May 2021 announcement is the source for that original forecast.
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The release also gave 2020 platform figures and separate 2025 platform projections. These provide context, but they do not add up to a reconciliation of the $55 billion headline:
| Measure | 2020 figure reported in 2021 | 2025 projection published in 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic PC game revenue | $13.9 billion; down 4.9% year over year | Not stated in the announcement |
| Domestic mobile game revenue | $29.2 billion; up 30.9% year over year | Not stated in the announcement |
| PC gamers | 325.4 million at the end of 2020 | 335.3 million |
| Mobile gamers | 681.7 million at the end of 2020 | 748 million |
The platform gamer counts overlap: Niko said most PC gamers also play on mobile. Adding the PC and mobile figures would therefore double-count many people and would not produce a total gamer count.
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How the forecast compares with later Niko estimates
Niko’s subsequent publications show how figures changed across forecast vintages. The 2025 model release reported $49.2 billion in player spending for 2024 and forecast $50.7 billion for 2025. It gave 722 million gamers for 2024 and projected 753.7 million by 2029. In a retrospective published September 1, 2026, Niko reported $51.8 billion in China market revenue for 2025, up 5.4% year over year. The 2026 article also forecast $53.9 billion for 2026, $59.8 billion for 2030, and 769 million players by 2030.
| Publication | Figure and period | Status | What it establishes |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 2021 | $55 billion market and 781 million gamers by 2025 | Five-year forecast | Original headline projection |
| Niko’s 2025 model release | $50.7 billion player spending in 2025; 722 million gamers in 2024; 753.7 million gamers projected by 2029 | 2025 forecast and reported 2024 count | A later forecast vintage, not a final 2025 gamer count. Niko’s 2025 market outlook |
| September 1, 2026 | $51.8 billion China market revenue in 2025, up 5.4% year over year; 769 million players projected by 2030 | Later report of 2025 revenue and 2030 forecast | A retrospective market figure and a separate future player projection. Niko’s September 2026 article |
The $50.7 billion forecast and $51.8 billion later reported figure are not interchangeable. They were published at different times, and the cited updates do not explain every model revision or establish that each vintage uses exactly the same revenue measure, platform scope, or gamer-count definition. The later $51.8 billion figure is below the 2021 $55 billion projection, but the available information does not support treating it as a like-for-like audit of the original forecast.
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Can the 781 million gamer forecast be checked?
Not from the comparable figures available here. The later releases give 722 million gamers for 2024 and a projection of 769 million players by 2030, but neither is a final 2025 count. Nor do they establish that their counting definitions match the 2021 forecast. The 781 million figure should therefore be described as an unverified 2021 projection, not as a confirmed 2025 outcome.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the 2021 announcement said about the market
Commenting on 2020, Niko Partners founder and president Lisa Hanson said: “While China has mostly returned to normal, the pandemic and resulting lockdowns led to major changes in gamer behavior, engagement, and spend throughout the year.” The statement was part of the May 2021 announcement and referred to the pandemic’s effects on gamer behavior and spending during 2020.
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