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How Brands Plan and Measure the Impact of Outdoor Mural Advertising

A practical framework for planning outdoor mural advertising and measuring awareness, recall, visits, or sales without mistaking other OOH case results for mural benchmarks.
Length10 min Posted Quest giverVGSources Team
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To measure an outdoor mural campaign, decide what change you want it to produce before choosing a wall: awareness, recall, consideration, visits, and incremental sales are different outcomes, and each needs a fitting KPI and study design. Then select locations and creative for the intended audience, define how exposed people will be compared with a suitable control group, and report results with the campaign format and study limits attached. Published outdoor-advertising case studies can show how this works, but results from transit shelters, billboards, or digital out-of-home (DOOH) are not mural benchmarks.

Start with the result you need to measure

A mural can be highly visible without changing what an audience knows, feels, or does. Delivery figures such as reach, frequency, or the number of placements describe an opportunity to see an ad; on their own, they do not establish that the campaign changed attitudes or behavior. Begin with the business or marketing outcome, then choose a measure that can actually answer whether it changed.

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Pick one primary outcome for the campaign. Secondary measures can add context, but they should not blur the main question. A campaign intended to improve recognition should not be judged primarily on store visits, and a visitation result should not be presented as proof of increased sales.

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Objective Possible measure What the measurement should establish
Awareness Aided or unaided brand awareness Whether awareness differs between people exposed to the campaign and an appropriate comparison group.
Recall Ad recall or message recall Whether respondents remember the ad or its message, with survey timing and question wording reported.
Consideration or intent Consideration or stated purchase intent Whether responses differ between exposed and control groups. Stated intent is not a completed purchase.
Local action Store visits, visitation rate, or website activity Whether post-exposure activity differs under a defined exposure model, comparison group, and lookback period.
Sales Incremental sales or sales lift Whether a sales-effect study estimates additional sales attributable to the campaign under its stated method and period.

These measures answer different questions. An awareness survey measures reported attitudes or memory; location-based attribution estimates visits; a sales-effect study evaluates sales. Do not translate one into another without evidence. In particular, a rise in purchase intent is not a sales result, and a visit count alone does not establish that a visit was incremental.

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Choose sites where the audience and desired action meet

Location planning should connect two decisions: where the intended audience is likely to encounter the mural and what the brand hopes that audience will do next. Depending on the campaign, useful geographies may include neighborhoods, travel routes, retail catchments, or destinations. A site close to a store may support a local-visit objective; a site selected for a broader audience may be better suited to an awareness goal. Proximity is a planning input, not proof that a person saw the mural or changed behavior because of it.

The Out of Home Advertising Association of America (OAAA) describes Janovic Paint & Home Decorating Stores choosing out-of-home (OOH) placements in neighborhoods near its nine Manhattan stores, with audience and proximity targeting aimed at homeowners and people interested in renovation. That example illustrates how a local retail objective can shape site selection. It is not a mural campaign: the placements were digital bus shelters.

Assess the location against the campaign brief

  • Audience fit: Does the proposed geography make sense for the people the campaign is trying to reach?
  • Connection to the action: If the goal is a local visit, is there a plausible relationship between the site and the store or destination?
  • Visibility and context: Can the creative be understood in the physical setting and during the likely exposure opportunity?
  • Coverage: Does the placement plan cover the intended market or catchment in a way the measurement design can evaluate?
  • Measurement feasibility: Can the provider define the exposure and comparison populations needed for the selected KPI?

There is no universal site-scoring formula established by the cases discussed here. Ask the media and measurement providers to explain their criteria, available audience data, and assumptions for each candidate location rather than treating a single score as a guarantee of performance.

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Make the artwork work at the site

A mural is large, public-facing, and physically tied to a location. Its plan should therefore account for the setting as well as the brand message. Give passersby a clear way to recognize the brand and grasp the core idea during the exposure available; detailed copy that requires prolonged attention may be poorly matched to a fast-moving viewing context. The exact creative should depend on the site, audience, and campaign objective, not on a presumed formula for lift.

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Two documented campaigns offer examples of local creative decisions. In the Janovic OAAA case, the company worked with a local New York City artist. Colossal Media says GoPuff’s 11-wall campaign used mural compositions tailored to different occasions. These cases show that artist collaboration and location- or occasion-aware compositions have been used in campaigns; they do not isolate those creative choices as the cause of reported results.

Before production, align the creative team and measurement provider on what the campaign is meant to communicate. If the KPI is message recall, the message needs to be identifiable in the survey. If the intended outcome is brand awareness, the brand should be recognizable in the artwork. This alignment makes it easier to interpret an outcome rather than discovering after the flight that the study measured a different question from the creative brief.

Set the flight and comparison before the mural goes live

Measurement choices made after launch can leave a campaign without a useful baseline or defensible comparison. Before committing to the flight, agree with the media vendor and research provider on dates, locations, the measurement window, how exposure will be modeled, and how the comparison group will be defined. Specify these details in the campaign plan so the eventual report can be read in context.

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  1. Write the objective and primary KPI. State the outcome in plain language and name the measure that will answer it.
  2. Document the placement plan. Record the markets, locations, mural format, flight dates, and any other OOH formats included. Keep format distinctions intact in the final analysis.
  3. Agree how exposure will be identified. Ask whether the provider uses geolocation-based exposure modeling, survey-reported exposure, or another method, and what data and assumptions that method requires.
  4. Define the comparison group. Decide how people who were not exposed will be identified or matched to exposed respondents. Establish any baseline measurement needed before the campaign begins.
  5. Set the observation window. Specify when surveys or activity will be measured and, for visitation, how long after exposure a qualifying visit can occur.
  6. Confirm reporting requirements. Ask for the study population, exposure and control definitions, sample and timing information, outcome definition, and limitations to be included in the report.

MFour describes methods that include geolocation-based exposure modeling, intercept surveys, matched exposed and control groups, and attribution modeling. OAAA’s Janovic account reports pre-campaign and in-campaign measurement as well as reach and frequency reporting. These examples show why the campaign brief should settle the comparison and reporting plan ahead of time; they do not establish one universal measurement protocol for every market or provider.

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Match the measurement method to the question

For awareness, recall, and brand attitudes

Use surveys that ask exposed respondents and a suitable control group consistent questions. Report when the survey was fielded, how exposure was determined, how the groups were formed, and the sample information available. These details matter because a difference between groups is meaningful only in light of who was surveyed and how exposure and control were defined. For recall, distinguish remembering the brand from remembering the ad or its message if the study measures those separately.

For consideration or purchase intent

Compare exposed and control respondents using the same question wording and response options. Interpret the result as a measure of stated consideration or intent, not a completed transaction. Intent can help describe a campaign’s attitudinal effect, but it should not be relabeled as sales lift.

For store or website visitation

Ask the provider to define its exposure model, comparison group, and lookback period. A location-based study may estimate visitation associated with people modeled as exposed, but its result depends on how exposure and visits are identified. The Lamar Advertising case for The Heel Inc. describes an exposed-versus-unexposed comparison, tracking 58,465 devices, and a 14-day lookback for store and website visitation. The case text does not state a numerical visitation lift, so the device count should not be mistaken for an outcome.

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The Janovic OAAA case reports over 2,000 additional website visitations associated with mobile geofencing. That is a reported outcome from its campaign, not a general expectation for mural advertisers. Its format was digital bus shelters, and the campaign also used pre-campaign and in-campaign measurement.

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For sales impact

Use a sales-effect design that estimates incremental outcomes and disclose the brand, campaign period, audience, and measurement method. Sales attribution is a different and more demanding question than whether an ad was delivered or whether respondents say they intend to buy. A sales result from one format or campaign should not be assigned to murals unless a study actually evaluated mural activity.

What published campaign examples do—and do not—show

Published cases can clarify the kinds of outcomes providers have measured, but their results are not directly comparable when formats, audiences, campaigns, and study designs differ. The examples below are best read as attributed campaign reports, not forecasts.

Case Reported information Format and qualification
GoPuff / Colossal Media Colossal reports an 11-wall campaign with a 30% lift in brand awareness and a 20% lift in positive brand sentiment, purchase intent, and likelihood to recommend. It also says mural walls exceeded other ad formats in brand-awareness lift by 8% and purchase intent by 14%. Mural campaign. The page describes a custom accretive study but does not provide the full sample or detailed analysis in the reviewed material; no publication year is stated.
Janovic Paint & Home Decorating Stores / OAAA The case reports a 35% increase in visitation rate and over 2,000 additional website visitations associated with mobile geofencing. Digital bus shelters in New York City, with two campaign flights and exposed/unexposed plus pre/in-campaign measurement. It is OOH, not a painted mural campaign; the campaign is dated 2020.
The Heel Inc. / Lamar Advertising The case reports 58,465 devices tracked and describes store and website visitation measurement. Exposed-versus-unexposed comparison and a 14-day lookback; the page does not provide a numerical lift in the text reviewed. Campaign dated 2023.
Clear Channel Outdoor / beverage brand / Circana-NCS The case reports a 0.84% sales increase and $11 million in additional sales. DOOH campaign with sales-effect measurement; the page reviewed does not state a publication year. This is not a mural-specific result.
MFour transit OOH examples A 2025 MFour white paper cites a 60% increase in unaided brand awareness, 79% ad recall within 24 hours, and a 28% lift in purchase intent for an eBay digital-transit case. Provider-published transit examples, not mural performance benchmarks. The figures should not be treated as independent, industry-wide estimates.

The reported percentages above do not share one denominator, KPI, format, or study design. A 35% increase in visitation rate cannot be ranked against a 30% lift in awareness, and a reported sales increase cannot be used to predict a mural’s effect. The reviewed cases do not establish a representative industry-wide statistic for mural effectiveness.

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Build a report that decision-makers can interpret

A useful post-campaign report lets a reader understand what ran, what was measured, and what the result does and does not support. Require the report to state:

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  • The campaign objective and primary KPI.
  • Campaign dates, markets, placements, and formats, distinguishing murals from transit, billboards, and DOOH.
  • The study population and how exposed and control groups were identified.
  • The exposure definition, survey timing, or visitation lookback period used.
  • The outcome definition and the reported result, with its comparison or baseline made clear.
  • Available sample information, data sources, and methodological limitations.
  • Whether the finding is an observed difference, an estimated lift, or a causal claim supported by the study design.

For example, if a report states that awareness increased, ask whether that means a change from a pre-campaign baseline, a difference between exposed and control respondents, or another calculation. Those are not interchangeable statements. Similarly, a visitation report should identify what counts as a visit and the period in which it must occur.

Use the findings to refine the next decision, not to overstate certainty. If the result is positive, determine whether the tested placement, audience, and objective are relevant to the next campaign. If the study is inconclusive, check whether the comparison group, sample, exposure model, or observation window can explain the uncertainty before concluding that the creative or medium failed.

Questions to resolve with providers before buying

Measurement availability and data access can vary by geography and provider. The cases discussed here do not establish a universal legal or technical standard for location-based exposure or attribution. Confirm current privacy practices, data requirements, and reporting capabilities directly with the providers working on the campaign.

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  • What precisely counts as an exposed person or device, and how is that determined?
  • How is the control group selected, and what makes it comparable to the exposed group?
  • What baseline, sample, or other data will be available for this particular campaign?
  • What time window is used for surveys or attributed visits?
  • Can results be separated by mural placement from other media formats in a mixed campaign?
  • Which limitations, assumptions, and privacy constraints will appear in the final report?

Those answers should be clear before launch, especially when the campaign’s primary KPI depends on modeled exposure or post-exposure behavior. A provider’s ability to report reach or activity is not automatically the same as the ability to estimate incremental impact.

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