There is no reliable fixed amount a mobile game earns from 1 million downloads. Downloads count installs; they do not tell you how many people still play, see ads, or spend money. To estimate revenue, you need a defined time period and information about active players, retention, player locations and platforms, ad impressions and rates, and in-app purchases or subscriptions.
Why 1 million downloads do not translate to a fixed amount
A million downloads is not a million active players—or a million paying customers. Some people stop playing soon after installing, and only a portion of an audience may see ads or make purchases. Google’s AdMob reporting treats active users, ad viewers, impressions, ad earnings, purchase earnings, and overall earnings as separate measures (AdMob metrics and dimensions).
Revenue also depends on the game’s business model, promotion and popularity, and player engagement, according to Google AdMob’s guidance on app revenue. Unity identifies platform, geographic region, player demographics, ad units, and engagement as factors affecting eCPM and monetization (Unity Monetization documentation).
How to estimate ad revenue
For ads, a useful calculation is:
Estimated ad revenue = ad impressions × realized eCPM ÷ 1,000
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eCPM is revenue per thousand impressions. The formula is a way to calculate revenue from observed impressions and eCPM, not a forecast based on downloads. Unity describes ad revenue in these terms and notes that eCPM varies by platform, region, audience, ad unit, and engagement (Unity Monetization documentation).
For a broader revenue estimate, add ad earnings to purchase and subscription earnings for the same period. AdMob defines overall earnings as ad earnings plus purchase earnings, and overall ARPU as those earnings divided by active users. Its purchase earnings figure does not subtract service or commission fees (AdMob metrics and dimensions). Revenue is not profit: subtract applicable fees and user-acquisition costs if you want to estimate what the developer keeps or earns after expenses.
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What to measure for a meaningful estimate
Choose a period and a specific download cohort first—for example, installs in a particular month—then measure the same audience and period throughout. Useful data includes:
- Downloads by platform and country.
- Retained and active users during the chosen period.
- Ad viewers, impressions by format, realized eCPM, and ad earnings.
- Payer share and earnings from purchases or subscriptions.
- Fees and acquisition spending, if estimating net proceeds or profit.
AdMob defines measures including active users, ad viewers, impressions, ad viewer rate, impressions per active user, and overall ARPU in its reporting documentation (AdMob metrics and dimensions). Comparing these measures is more useful than comparing one game’s lifetime download count with another game’s monthly revenue.
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How monetization changes the result
Advertising
Ads can generate revenue from players who never buy anything. Common formats include banners, interstitials, and rewarded ads; the number of impressions and the realized rate determine earnings, while placement and frequency can affect the player experience. Google discusses advertising as a way to monetize non-spending players and as a model that can coexist with in-app purchases (Google AdMob monetization guidance).
In-app purchases and subscriptions
Purchase revenue depends on how many players spend, what the game offers, and how much buyers spend. An install total alone does not reveal any of those details. AdMob’s overall earnings reporting includes purchase earnings alongside ad earnings, and its guidance identifies in-app purchases and subscriptions as app revenue sources (AdMob metrics and dimensions).
Hybrid monetization
A hybrid game combines ads with purchases or subscriptions. It can earn from both non-spending players and buyers, but results depend on the game and how the systems are implemented. A Google-published Avid.ly case study describes adding rewarded ads in 2016 and reports a 40% increase in average revenue per user, an 18% increase in in-app purchase revenue, and a 20% increase in session length. Those figures describe one developer’s game and are not a general forecast for other titles (Google AdMob monetization guidance).
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What published earnings examples can—and cannot—tell you
Google AdMob has published historical examples that show how varied app earnings can be, but they do not establish a standard payout for one million game downloads:
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- Cherry Chaser: One month after launch, Rich Woods’s game reportedly earned $100 per day and had more than 300,000 downloads. It is a single historical case, not a transferable rate.
- Farm Frenzy: HeroCraft reportedly earned $20,000 in its first four months with in-app purchases, then $58,900 in the following four months after adding AdMob to the free app. The figures describe one title’s experience, not earnings per million downloads.
- Blood Pressure: AdMob reported monthly earnings of $700–$850 for an app with more than one million installs as of 2013. It is not a game, so it should not be treated as a mobile-game benchmark.
These examples appear in Google AdMob’s app-revenue guidance. Their different dates, products, and circumstances make them unsuitable for predicting what a current game will earn.
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Another historical figure needs particular care: a 2018 Google AdMob hybrid-monetization white paper reported that in-app ads represented 54% of total revenue in a modeled profile and modeled a 117% increase versus in-app purchases alone. The model used Google and App Annie data from July 2015, averaged the top 10,000 Android apps, assumed paying users were 5% of total users and received no ads, and reported different modeled ad shares by category: casual 78%, action 74%, strategy 37%, and role-playing 17%. These are dated model estimates, not current observed outcomes or universal results (Google AdMob hybrid monetization white paper).
Unity’s glossary gives average figures of $0.02 per rewarded-video impression, $0.16 per interstitial completion, and $2.50 per offerwall completion. They are format-specific figures, not earnings estimates for a particular game or its one million downloads; the page does not establish a game’s audience mix or the period represented (Unity Monetization glossary).
Revenue per download is not the same as profit
Dividing total revenue by downloads can produce a revenue-per-download figure for a defined game and period, but it should not be presented as a universal rate. State which downloads, platforms, countries, and dates are included. Also distinguish gross purchase earnings from proceeds after platform or service fees, and revenue from profit after expenses such as user acquisition.
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